India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday, marking his first visit to the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.
Their meeting is significant as it’s the Indian premier’s first bilateral trip overseas since he was reelected for a rare third term in June.
The two leaders are set to reinforce the development of “traditionally friendly relations between Russia and India,” as well as discuss “topical issues on the international and regional agendas,” the Kremlin said last week.
The
meeting will provide an opportunity for the two sides to review a range
of bilateral issues — from defense and trade, to investment ties and
energy cooperation, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said in a media briefing on Friday.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on Monday for the first time in five years at a time when Moscow is deepening its embrace of New Delhi's rival, China.
Modi is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the visit, which will stretch into Tuesday. India's Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters in New Delhi that given the lack of recent summits, several issues on the bilateral agenda "have piled up, which need to be addressed."
Senior Indian diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while major announcements are unlikely, Modi's visit is intended to send a signal that the two sides remain close. Russia's ties to India stretch back to the Cold War, and the country is India's biggest supplier of weapons and oil. That relationship has remained "resilient," Kwatra said.
On the agenda
Russia and India will also assess the status of bilateral engagements in groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Group of 20, the BRICS bloc of developing nations, the United Nations, and the East Asia Summit, Kwatra said.
“The issue of early discharge of Indian nationals who have been misled into the service of the Russian army is also expected to figure in the discussions,” Kwatra added.
Since March, India has sought the release of nationals, said to have been “duped” into serving in the Russian army, following the uncovering of what the South Asian nation has labeled as a “major human trafficking network.”
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a slew of sanctions from the Group of 7 nations, as well as other countries, as world leaders sought to cut off or limit Moscow’s ability to fund the war. The Kremlin has insisted on calling the invasion a “special military operation.”
India has refrained from outright criticism of Putin but has kept a neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while urging both sides to end the war. New Delhi, however, condemned the killing of civilians early in the Ukraine conflict but did not assign blame to Russia.
Modi’s visit to the Kremlin comes on the heels of his meeting with G7 leaders in Italy last month, where the bloc of industrialized nations — made up of the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom — agreed to fund Ukraine’s war against Russia with profits from frozen Kremlin assets.
“This trip will rankle many Western observers,” an analyst at the Lowy Institute pointed out in a published commentary.
India’s refiners have been snapping up discounted Russian oil since the start of the Ukraine war. New Delhi’s purchase of cheap Russian oil has been viewed as “profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe,” the Lowy report said.
"India, situated between Russia, China, and the West, seeks more predictability from Russia and is willing to play a bigger role in promoting peace" in Ukraine, said Petr Topychkanov, associate senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
"Nevertheless, behind closed doors, Putin may face questions from Modi about the increasingly close ties between Russia and China," he said.
Moscow will be Modi's first bilateral visit since he won a third term in office last month. His decision to travel to Russia instead of neighboring countries like Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka marks a break in convention for Indian leaders. For Moscow, the trip helps rebuff Western efforts to cast Putin as a pariah over his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while also shoring up relations with an important trading partner and key buyer of its oil.
Measures to reduce a trade imbalance between the two countries are likely to figure prominently in the talks, Kwatra said. India currently imports about $60 billion a year in goods from Russia, which is buying less than $5 billion from India. China's actions in the Indo-Pacific could also come up, India's top diplomat said.
While in previous years the Indian and Russian leaders met annually, Modi began skipping those summits after Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022. The two last met that year on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan.
Future arms deals could also be on the agenda, according to Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. He said Russia could supply India with new air defense systems and Su-30MKI fighter jets, as well as the licensed production of Ka-226T multipurpose helicopters. India is facing a severe crunch of fighter jets and is considering buying a dozen more from Russia to replace those lost in accidents.
Modi's trip comes just weeks after a team of senior US officials traveled to India to discuss cooperation in technology, security and investment. Modi has sought a deeper partnership with the US and is pushing Washington to boost technology transfers and foreign investment.
The US for its part sees India as a partner in its rivalry with China, but the relationship has at times frustrated Washington. Modi has declined to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine even as it has pushed for diplomacy. US prosecutors also are investigating an alleged murder-for-hire plot on American soil that they say involved senior Indian officials.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in late June said US officials have raised concerns about India-Russia ties with New Delhi, but that Washington retained confidence in India and wants to expand relations.
In addition to talks with Putin, Modi is expected to meet with members of the Indian community in Russia. About 14,000 Indians, including 4,500 students, reside there, according to the Indian embassy.
India and Russia’s historical ties
India and Russia have shared a long-standing security cooperation partnership since the Cold War period, with New Delhi’s armed forces heavily reliant on Moscow for military equipment.
Modi’s last visit to Russia was in 2019 when he visited the far eastern port of Vladivostok for an economic forum. The two last met in person in 2022 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization held in Uzbekistan, where Modi had told the Russian president that it was not an era of war but stopped short of condemning his actions in Ukraine.
Russia, like the U.S., has its own place in India’s foreign policy, said former Indian Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal in a recent post on social media platform, X.
“Neither India nor the global south consider Putin an international pariah,” the former ambassador to Russia added.
India’s bilateral trade with Russia jumped 33% in the financial year ended March 2024, hitting an all-time high of $65.7 billion. However, trade remains imbalanced, Kwatra pointed out.
India’s exports to Russia were $4.26 billion, while imports from the Kremlin amounted near $61.44 billion, official data showed.
Following his two-day visit to Russia, Modi will head to Vienna, Austria on Tuesday in what would be the first visit by an Indian prime minister in 41 years. See More
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